In addition, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, without urban development scenarios, were investigated to determine the effects of urbanization in Jakarta. The projected rainfall data of RCP2.6-SSP1 and RCP8.5-SSP3, based on the WRF simulation, were used as inputs for rainfall-runoff and flood inundation simulations in Jakarta. This study aimed to quantify the effects of land use and climate change using a flood inundation model to analyze future urban growth and climate change scenarios. Jakarta is a typical urbanized Asian city in Indonesia where flooding presents a consistent challenge. With similar average impervious surface area percentage, land use with spatial variation may aggravate flash flood conditions more intensely compared to spatially uniform land use distribution.įlood risks associated with changes in land use and climate are a common concern, especially in relation to their potential effects on many cities around the world.
Areas influenced by flash flood and floodplain increases due to urbanization are related not only to overall impervious surface area percentage but also to the spatial distribution of impervious surface coverage. The results show that urbanization creates higher surface runoff and river discharge rates and shortened times to achieve the peak runoff and discharge.
In order to investigate the effects of urbanization on changes in urban flood risk, land use maps from six different years (1966, 1971, 1976, 1981, 1986, and 2000) and of six simulated land use scenarios (0%, 20%, 40%, 60, 80%, and 100% impervious surface area percentages) were input into coupled hydrologic and hydraulic models. A sub-watershed in Toronto, Canada, with urban land conversion was selected as a test site for this study. The objective of this work is to investigate the sensitivities of urban flooding to urban land growth through simulation of flood flows under different urbanization conditions and during different flooding stages. Urbanization increases regional impervious surface area, which generally reduces hydrologic response time and therefore increases flood risk.
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